Is the Earth’s next collision just around the corner? A newly discovered asteroid is raising concerns among scientists due to its potential risk of impacting the planet in 2032. Here are the details as shared by NASA.
Remember Apophis? A similar massive asteroid named 2024 YR4 is approaching the Earth and may strike us sooner than you’d think. First detected in December 2024, this giant space rock is larger than the size of a football field and has a 1-in-77 chance of colliding with Earth. It was first discovered by NASA’s ATLAS, i.e., Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. As per the Torino scale at the International Astronomy Center (IAC) in Abu Dhabi, it has been rated a Level 3 threat. This means it has a higher-than-average chance of impact which is raising concerns among astronomers.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is quite rare, thanks to its size. As per estimates, it could be at least twice as large as a cricket pitch. Its significant size may be a reason for causing damage to the planet if it enters the Earth’s atmosphere. It last made a close approach to our planet in December 2024 passing at a distance of about 800,000 kilometres. It is again predicted to fly by in 2028 without posing any threat. As per the current projections, 2024 YR4 will pass within 127,000 kilometers of Earth in 2032. The margin of uncertainty in this trajectory extends up to 1.4 million kilometers.
While the chances of Apophis (i.e., asteroid 99942) hitting the Earth are more potential in 2029 and 2036, the 2024 YR4 is the second such celestial object whose impact risk has reached greater than a 1% chance. The rare but not unheard of celestial body has a 1.3% to 1.4% chance (that is 1 in 77) that it could hit the Earth precisely on December 22, 2023. Though its trajectory remains uncertain, even a slight shift in its orbit could put our planet at risk.
The challenge is that since it doesn’t reflect much sunlight, it is quite difficult for experts to track the asteroid 2024 YR4. The crucial close encounter expected in 2028 may provide opportunities for further observations.
